IHS expects worldwide semiconductor revenue to grow 3.3% this year – a far cry from the 8% forecast by Future Horizons. IHS expects Q1 to be down with growth resuming in Q2.
However IHS qualifies its prediction by adding that ‘the overall picture could brighten considerably if the United States and the rest of the world recover in 2013.’
Recovery in the macro economy would result in growth from 2013 to 2015 averaging 6.6 to 7.9 % with the industry growing to nearly $400bn by 2015.
‘A deliberate decrease in manufacturing run rates by companies in the third quarter of 2011 proved unable to bring inventory down to levels that would have fired up additional orders and increased factory run rates,’ says HIS, ‘as a result, semiconductor demand for manufacturers will remain depressed until the second quarter of 2012.’
IHS reckons because factory utilisation will not recover until the middle of 2012, with having difficulty maintaining the viability of underperforming factories. With current manufacturing capacity deemed acceptable for meeting demand, most capital expenditures to boost efficiency within the industry likely will be pushed out to 2013.
DRAM revenues are expected to decline 16.1% in 2012 on top of a 26.8% fall in 2011.
Foundries will continue to outperform the industry, while IDMs will have lower growth, especially as they have abdicated manufacturing in leading-edge technology — where the high margins are —t o the foundries.
IDMs which allow fabless or foundry companies to control leading-edge design or production risk consolidation, says IHS, which would have the unintended effect of providing rival foundries with even more opportunities for additional growth.