It is good to see that after the very difficult overall environment and semiconductor industry conditions at the turn of the year, concerns have diminished significantly over the last two quarters. So much so that while at the beginning of 2009 a semiconductor market reduction of 25% was forecast, many analysts are now projecting the downturn impact as a 10% or less reduction in the overall semiconductor market for 2009 as a whole.
Perhaps more important is that some analysts are now forecasting 20% or more sequential growth in 2010. This forecast is very encouraging and significant as it indicates continuation of the strong industry recovery that has already begun in the last two quarters.
See a preview of what is to follow in the Electronics Weekly Picture Gallery
From my point of view the significant developments and trends this year have been, and will continue to be:
- Multimedia will continue to spread. Graphics has now expanded far beyond the PC market and into mobile; soon it will encompass the TV and STB markets, and more. Users are drawn to products that have strong visual acumen and this will be reinforced by the next wave of even more graphically capable, highly interactive devices.
- Video decode and encode is becoming even more of a driver for the future in the wake of ever growing richness and diversity of online provision of commercial content and the huge popularity of Web 2.0 user generated video content.
- Connectivity is becoming an essential feature, not just an option, in many forms of consumer devices. This is being driven by the 'internet everywhere' trend which we think will mean that within five years, more than 70% of all mainstream consumer electronics products, including TVs, radios, cameras, printers and more will connect directly to the internet, not via a PC. Indeed, several major CE manufacturers have already committed to integrate internet connectivity across their entire product lines. The era of connected devices is certainly arriving.
Reflecting this trend, we expect a new class of embedded 'Connected Processor' solutions will arise.
Mobility and low power will continue to be a major trend as users want 'everything, everywhere'. The ability to enjoy the same content, and comparable services, on the move as users do at home is a key driver in the uptake of mobile products; and applications like, advanced user interfaces, cloud-based services, uncompromised internet browsing, navigation and games will proliferate across many forms of end user products.
Elsewhere in our industry "Make vs. Buy" decisions are tending more towards the buying of major SoC functional blocks, in the form of IP, across many key areas including CPU, GPU, video and communications. This is being driven by time to market of course, but also because it allows for the available investment to target what really matters to semiconductor companies such as creating domain-specific application platforms, maximising total solution delivery to their customers and developing broader product portfolios targeting a wider range of markets.
The trend towards delivering more complete solutions to help and support their customers and target markets rather than 'just' technology means successful semis and in fact OEMs will have to increasingly focus on the key problems they are solving and go beyond enabling technologies. I believe that successful identification of, development and delivery of the relevant domain knowledge will be a key factor in determining which companies will thrive and which new business are created next year, and in years to come.
Hossein Yassaie, CEO of Imagination Technologies