Surprise semiconductor sales figures for January suggest that the 2011 market could be much better than is generally expected, according to leading analysts.
“January sales figures confirm what we’ve been saying all along that this is going to be a strong year,” says Europe’s leading semiconductor analyst Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, “the real message is that everyone thinks the first half will be weak - and they are absolutely wrong. They’re all going to be caught with their pants down because they haven’t done the right things now.”
WSTS reports that IC sales declined 4.5 % in January – against a ten-year average Dec-Jan decline of 17%.
Bill McClean, CEO of the USA’s leading semiconductor analysts IC Insights, points up the contrast between Jan 2011 and the January in the January 2011 figure: in Jan 2010, the market shrank 7%; in Jan 2009 – 17%; in Jan 2008 16%; in Jan 2007 – 18%; in Jan 2005 – 11%; in Jan 2004 – 21%; in Jan 2003 – 22%; in Jan 2002 – 21%; in Jan 2001 – 48%; and in Jan 2000 – 17%.
McClean was forecasting double digit growth for 2011 before the January figures came out. He now says: “Look for other forecasters to be announcing upward revisions to their 2011 low single-digit IC and semiconductor market forecasts over the next few weeks.”
The Dec-Jan 2011 market decline is the smallest since January 1990. From 1990-2010, the average January/December IC sales decline was 17% while the 1999-2010 average was 20%.
Since 1984, sequential Q4-Q1 growth has averaged -1.2%. The largest sequential Q4-Q1 market increase since 1984 was 1986’s 11%.
Using the actual January 2011 IC sales figure and incorporating the 1999-2010 average sequential growth rate for the months of February (3%) and March (28%) leads to a 1Q11 IC market of $71.6bn, which would represent a 14% surge over 4Q10 (a new 27-year Q4-Q1 high).
Taking a worst case scenario by using the poorest sequential monthly growth rates for February and March since 1999 (i.e., February of 2007 at -7% and March of 2005 at 19%) would still yield a Q4 2010 to Q1 2011 growth rate of 3% compared to the 26 year average of minus 1.2%.
In Europe the ESIA reports that the January 2011 sales figure was up on December 2010 by 1.6% measured in Euros and by 0.3% measured in $s.