Opportunities for new wireless technologies are limited except in near field communications (NFC), according to Peter Gardner, technology sector head for wireless communications at 3i Group, the investment financiers.
“Is there a need for more technology in wireless?” asked Gardner at the Silicon South-West meeting organised by SETsquared, the inter-university start-up incubator. “I am sceptical about WIMAX as an alternative to either WiFi or cellular. I think spectrum issues may stop WIMAX. There is no standard spectrum available. It is strongly regulated in different countries, and there’s no sign of it becoming standardised.”
On the other hand, Gardner thought there might be
opportunities in NFC because, apart from Zigbee, standards are not finally fixed.
“At $1 it’s cheaper to connect by wireless than by wire,” said Gardner, quoting estimates that, by 2010 half of all mobile handsets will have wireless authentication technology. He noted that DoCoMo in Japan has NFC technology in handsets allowing people to pay train fares wirelessly.
However, Gardner pointed out that the financial requirements for getting into wireless telephony had changed dramatically since the beginning of the decade.
“In 2000, a spectrum licence cost $5bn, a basestation cost $120,000, a UK network cost $16bn and vendor financing would be about 30 per cent, making for a total equity investment of $8bn,” said Gardner.
“Today, a spectrum licence costs about $1m, basestations cost about $20,000 and Lucent is talking about $10,000. Banks like the sector because the carriers are throwing off huge amounts of cash. Vendors are putting up 90 per cent of the equipment cost, plus a three year holiday before you have to pay anything back, and the cost of a network today is between $200m and $250m,” said Gardner.
See also: Electronics Weekly's Guide to Wireless Networks, a roundup of content related to wireless networks.