Wikipedia defines the Dog Days of Summer as "a time period or event that is very hot or stagnant, or marked by dull lack of progress." In the recent weeks we've seen a string of IP and EDA companies reporting less than hot results, more in the latter category let's say.
Thinking about the weather brings to mind a publication we've had here in America for the last 200 years called the Farmer's Almanac.
The Farmers Almanac is an annual publication which among other things predicts the coming year's weather based on historical data. Such visibility is a great aide to the farmer, allowing him to plan more conservatively because a poor year is expected, or to be aggressive and plan for a large crop when a good year is forecast
Wouldn't we in the semiconductor industry be so lucky to have such an almanac by which to plan our year?
Companies, like farmers have seasons which also follow the same kinds of cycles so familiar to our farmers: Plan, Plant, Grow, and Harvest. Too often companies are surprised to see that the harvests not living up to expectation and blame it on the weather (or something else they can't control.) The blame can be more accurately placed on themselves.
Let's take a look at these cycles:
| Season |
Farmer |
Technology Company |
| Planning |
Assess the market; identify which crops the market wants to buy |
Assess the market; identify which products the market wants to buy |
| Planting |
Lay down the seeds for the crops as planned |
Staff the initial development and marketing teams to begin product development |
| Growing |
Water, fertilize as needed; watch for pests who harm the crop |
Go to market with early product, incorporate feedback and grow the installed based of to a point where the product has long-term viability |
| Harvesting |
Remove the crops from the field and exchange for money |
Stable product that has market acceptance and generates cash with minimal re-investment |
Planning
In the winter, the farmer takes stock of his assets and makes his plans on where he is going to invest. The bets he makes here are going to determine whether he eats next winter.
For the high tech executive, Planning is a similar exercise to the farmer in assessing the market and his or her company's ability to develop products in it. This is where strategic decisions are made and like the farmer, the high tech executive that "bets the farm" on the wrong strategy may find himself without a crop to harvest.
Planting
In the spring, the farmer moves into action and begins planting the seeds of the crops he hopes to harvest in the fall. Additional subtleties like choosing which fields in which to plant each crop can be critical to maximizing the harvest.
For the high tech executive, Planting means getting development off to a good start. The product is clearly defined and management will have installed the right team to build the product, just as the farmer has identified the right field for his crop.
Growing
In the summer, the farmer carefully watches his crop. He ensures it has sufficient water and nutrients to grow. He measures progress for growth according to accepted norms such as "knee high by the 4th of July" for corn. He is also watchful for competitors such as rabbits and weevils who may like to enjoy an early harvest of his work.
For the high tech executive, the Growing season also represents a time when the first results of planting become seen. It is a critical time to make adjustment in the marketing strategy or product features to maximize the growth. Like the farmer, it is here that the first competitors may be seen invading the field which has been so carefully cultivated. Good results often attract a crowd.
Harvesting
In the fall, the farmer finally achieves his pay off. A successful crop allows the farmer to generate enough cash to fund next season's crop and put aside a part of the profits for less successful years ahead. A failure brings immediate hardship and successive failing harvest seasons almost certainly brings with it the end of the farm's viability.
For the high tech executive, the harvest season is what is sometimes referred to in business as a "cash cow". Here we have a product which has been accepted by the market and can generate a lot of cash without much oversight and nurturing.
Unfortunately, it is a rare thing to see technology companies be as balanced as the farmer in running their businesses. Too often there is a preoccupation with getting to the harvest season without doing the work required in the other three seasons. Instead of developing and nurturing new products companies are trapped into harvesting the old ones which produce a little less, year after year.
Perhaps the "dog days" results we are seeing posted these days are a reflection of under-investment of critical business review functions. It could be a long winter for some of them.
Warren Savage, President and CEO of IPextreme, is a well-known and published authority in the field of semiconductor intellectual property.
He has a long history of pushing the envelope of design methodology from his work in fault tolerant computing at Tandem Computers in the 1980's and driving reliable design methodologies into commercial practice at Synopsys for its DesignWare IP product in the 1990s. Much of his thinking became embodied in the seminal book on IP reuse, the Reuse Methodology Manual.
Previous columns
(Nov 07) Warren Savage On: Making the Case for Invented Here
(Dec 07) Warren Savage On: Swiss Cheese Solutions
(Jan 08) Warren Savage On: Collaboration Needed for Success
(Feb 08) Warren Savage On: Knowing Your No
(Mar 08) Warren Savage On: The Next Big Thing
(Apr 08) Warren Savage On: Gumming Up the Works?
(May 08) Warren Savage On: Waiting for Godot
(June 08) Warren Savage On: Our Virtual Future
(July 08) Warren Savage On: Being Plugged In