Sales of tablets and smartphones will keep NAND flash demand strong, but slowing sales of PCs could see DRAM in over-supply by Q1 2011, says Samsung, the No.1 manufacturer of both NAND flash and DRAM.
Nonetheless, Samsung is going hell for leather in expanding DRAM production with a new memory fab coming on-stream in Q1 2011, a migration to 35nm for DRAM in Q4 2010, and a migration to 20nm flash sometime in 2011.
Meanwhile all Samsung’s existing fabs are running fully loaded.
“Strong demand for chips in tablets and smartphones will offset weakness in the PC market," Oh-Hyun Kwon, president of Samsung semiconductor, told a Taipei press conference earlier this week.
Samsung is having to run hard in the NAND flash business to keep ahead of its NAND technology licensor, Toshiba.
In Q1 2010, Samsung’s NAND market share was 38.5% and Toshiba’s was 33.8% - a 2.9% rise in the quarter compared to Samsung’s 1.3% decline.
By March 2010. Toshiba had been closing the gap steadily for the previous nine months due, it is said, to the success of its three-bit-per-cell technology but, in Q2 2010. Samsung increased its share to 40% while Toshiba's share stayed at 33%.
Ironically, both companies have recently launched Android-based tablet computers.
Samsung's Galaxy Tab weighing 380g, has a seven inch screen, while Toshiba's Folio 100 weighs 760g with a ten inch screen.