Worldwide fab capacity will grow 7% this year and 8% next year, according to SEMI the trade body of the manufacturers of semiconductor production equipment.
This year’s 7% increase in overall capacity will be achieved by a 133% increase in spending on manufacturing machines and a 125% increase in construction spending.
Next year’s increase of 8% in worldwide capacity will be achieved by an 18% increase on equipment spend and a 22% increase in construction spending.
The total amount spent this year and next will be $83bn, and the number of fab projects on which it will be spent will total more than 150.
SEMI’s World Fab Forecast identifies 54 construction projects for 2010 costing about $4.5bn
About half of the projects are for LED facilities (mostly in China), while 14 are for foundries and six are for memory fabs.
Of the 54 construction projects, 22 are new facilities that will begin construction by the end of this year.
About 28 construction projects, including two greenfield sites, are on the horizon for 2011— representing another $5.5bn in construction costs.
Foundries are expected to spend the most in 2010 (over $2bn), followed by memory. However, this will change in 2011, when memory companies will spend over $3bn in construction costs.
2010 spending totals for construction projects reflect a growth rate of 125% compared to 2009. However, because 2009 was such an unusually weak year, $4.5bn remains the lowest yearly total since 2003.
Even 2011 spending, with about $5.5bn projected, will be lower than levels seen between 2004 through 2007.
Spending on equipping fabs will increase by 133% in 2010 to an estimated $34bn. This is a record growth rate, albeit off of the historic low of 2009.
If compared to 2008 spending, however, 2010 total equipment spending will be only 27% higher. If compared to 2007, 2010 spending is actually 11% lower.
The World Fab Forecast report predicts spending in 2011 to increase 18%, bringing total spending to $39bn, finally surpassing 2007 spending levels. In other words, it will take three years for spending to recover from the downturn that started in 2008.
Spending on equipping fabs includes Discrete (such as LED and MEMS), Pilot lines and R&D facilities around the world. Although LED fabs represent a relatively small portion of spending (about $1.4bn in 2010), this sector shows the most robust growth rate for the year. Memory fabs will spend the most on equipment in 2010, followed by Foundries, MPUs and Logic. This trend is expected to continue in 2011.
By the end of 2010, about 22 new facilities will begin operations. 11 are LED fabs, 6 are foundries, 3 are analogue and two are logic.
No new memory fabs will begin operation in 2010. However, in 2011, another 28 facilities are expected to begin operations, including four memory fabs.