The worldwide IC market is expected to jump a conservatively estimated 27% in 2010 to $253bn and another 15% in 2011 to $290bn, according to US analysts IC Insights which expects 3% growth in Q1, a flat Q2, a 9% increase in Q3, and a 3% increase in Q4.
At $253bn, the 2010 IC market would exceed by 8% the previous high of $234bn reached in 2007.
DRAM is leading the charge. Fuelled by strong increases in average selling prices, IC Insights believes that the DRAM market will surge at least 74% this year.
If the January 2010 DRAM market stayed flat for the next 11 months, the 2010/2009 DRAM market would register 61% growth.
The strong DRAM market is expected to help support the 100%+ capital spending increases now budgeted by many of the DRAM manufacturers this year.
The upgrade to IC Insights' earlier worldwide IC market forecast is almost entirely due to a revision in the IC market change expected for 1Q10/4Q09.
While a moderate seasonal decline in 1Q10/4Q09 IC sales was previously anticipated, it now appears that the 1Q10/4Q09 IC market will display a 3% increase.
Because the 1Q09 IC market was so depressed, being the extreme bottom of the 2008-2009 downturn, the 1Q10/1Q09 IC market increase is likely to be greater than 50%. However, as 2010 progresses, IC Insights expects the quarterly year-over-year comparisons to fall back, with the 4Q10 IC market forecast to be only 14% greater than the IC market in 4Q09.
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