Gartner Dataquest sees the semiconductor industry topping $300bn for the first time in 2009, but that year will signal the peak of the current cycle, according to principal Gartner analyst Mike Williams, speaking at the Sharp Innovation Forum in the Seeon Monastery near Munich this week.
“The cycles are milder than previously”, said Williams, projecting 3.9 per cent market growth this year, 8.2 per cent in 2008, 6.1 per cent in 2009, 0.4 per cent growth in 2010 and 6.1 per cent growth in 2011.
The fastest $ growth segment 2006-11 is automotive at 8 per cent, said Williams, followed by communications at 4.7 per cent then consumer and computer both at 4.2 per cent.
Even by 2011, the largest current application areas for semiconductors will still be the same as they are now. Digital cellular, desktop PC and mobile PC will account for 35 per cent of the spend on semiconductors in 2011.
Asked how the credit crunch affects the semiconductor industry, Williams replied: “We don’t yet see it affecting demand in the market yet, but we’ll be revising our forecast in November, and reviewing it to see how the credit crunch affects consumer buying patterns.”