A 45% increase on spending on semiconductor production equipment in 2010 is expected by Gartner.
Worldwide semiconductor equipment spending is forecast to end the year with a 42.6 percent decline in 2009, but the market is now in the midst of a very strong growth spurt, according to Gartner, Inc. Gartner expects semiconductor equipment spending to increase 45.3 percent in 2010.
"2010 growth will be driven by technology upgrades for the first half of the year," said Dean Freeman, research vice president at Gartner, "the quarterly growth may see a slight lull in the third quarter of 2010 before capacity additions, starting in late 2010, ramp up the equipment industry into 2011."
Gartner expects capex to rise from $25bn this year, to $36.7bn next year, $47.8bn in 2011, $57bn in 2012, $48.7bn in 2013 and 53.6bn in 2014.
Worldwide wafer fab equipment spending is expected to decrease 48.1 percent in 2009 and increase 56.5% in 2010.
'The big question will be the availability of 193 immersion steppers, says Gartner, 'these are the critical items for all technology upgrades. In Foundry, TSMC will be installing its first immersion steppers. For memory, the leading edge for DRAM will move into the 4xnm range, also requiring immersion.'
Worldwide packaging and assembly equipment spending is forecast to decrease 40.5% in 2009, then increase 52.8% in 2010.
Certain equipment segments will have substantially higher growth. For example, demand for equipment for advanced processes, such as wafer-level packaging, 3-D processes, and through-silicon vias manufacturing, is expected to grow faster than demand for the general market.
For 2009, worldwide automated test equipment is on pace to decline 44.9%. This will be followed by growth of 59.7% in 2010. After falling substantially for several quarters through the first quarter of 2009, the ATE market recovered in the second quarter of 2009.
Growth is expected to continue during the next several quarters as device demand improves. For 2010, Gartner's forecast projects substantial ATE industry growth of nearly 60%, mainly from the transition to the mainstream adoption of DDR3 memory.
"The impact of fewer equipment customers will continue to play out in the semiconductor equipment market and further consolidation is to be expected, with mergers and acquisitions, as well as companies closing down that can no longer afford to run a business in the semiconductor industry," says Bob Johnson, research vice president at Gartner.
