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Was the original data given to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) for the first five months of 2008 doctored? The question is asked by semiconductor industry analyst Mike Cowan who developed the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global S/C sales.
"With the reporting of June's sales the WSTS revised downward, and quite dramatically, previously reported sales results for each of the first five months of this year", Cowan told Electronics Weekly.
"If one looks at the 'fine structure' of the monthly sales numbers that the WSTS posted for the first five months of the year, one would notice that there were major downward revisions to each of these previous months - to the tune of $1.440 billion that 'disappeared' from the full year 2008 cumulative year-to-date global S/C sales!"
"For June's sales number release by the WSTS there was good news and bad news", commented Cowan, "the good news being that June's sales number for global S/Cs was a record high result compared to past (historical) June's sales. The bad news (not mentioned by the WSTS and therefore unexplained) was that a total of approximately $1.44bn of previously reported sales 'was erased'."
The original sales figures presented by WSTS were:
Jan 19,153,817 Feb 18,776,294 March 25,589,266 April 19,378,485 May 20,530, 047
The revised (in June) sales figures given by WSTS were:
Jan 19,110,721 Feb 18,499,056 March 25,196,637 April 18,931,714 May 20, 250, 231
The monthly difference is:
Jan 43,096 Feb 271,238 Feb 392,629 March 392,629 April 446,771 May 279,816
The cumulative difference for Jan-May inclusive is: 1,439,550
Cowan concluded: "It looks like there may have been some "doctoring" of the data submitted to the WSTS during previous months' inputs?"
Cowan added: "It should be pointed out that occasionally the WSTS will revise (both up and down, that is 'puts and takes') their actual sales numbers for previous months but these revisions are typically very small and of little consequence to the 'big picture'."
Cowan's monthly forecasts can be purchased either each month (for $37) or for a 12-month subscription (@ $370) by visiting: http://www.insidechips.com/products/department7.cfm.
See also: Mannerisms, the blog of David Manners. Updated twice daily, it's the distinctive, entertaining, authoritative and never dull commentary on the semiconductor industry, from someone who knows. Sign up for the Mannerisms eNewsletter.