2009 will turn out to be one of the worst years in European semiconductor distribution for the last 20 years, according to DMASS (Distributors' and Manufacturers' Association of Semiconductor Specialists).
The first nine months of 2009 showed a decrease of over 27% compared to the first nine months of 2008, says DMASS, however, the steep decline of the first half slowed in Q3 which declined at 23.4% compared to Q308. Q309 sales totalled €926m. DMASS reckons 2009 will end up showing a decline of 20-25%.
"It seems that the dramatic hit the entire industry has taken since October last year, when the finance crisis swapped over into the industry, is wearing off and that the electronics market is on the way to recovery", says Georg Steinberger, Chairman of DMASS, "currently, we see a steep increase of bookings and in some cases delivery problems, both of which will add to the recovery. For 2009, we will still end up with a decrease of over 20%. And going forward, the big question is: Do we see a real recovery or a modest inventory correction that will ease out over the first half of 2010?"
The regional distribution picture did not show any real winners or losers. The biggest region, Germany, declined in Q3 by 24.9% to €315m compared to Q308. Italy went down 27.8% to €91m, the UK 22.8% to €86m, and France by 22% to €73m. Nordic and Eastern Europe fell at the same rate, by 26.2% respectively 24.4%. Countries that declined significantly below average were Benelux (-10.2%), Austria (-11.5%) and Iberia (-14.3%).
"The crisis may have erased many differences that have existed between the regions, specifically with regards to Eastern Europe", adds Steinberger, "the European electronics industry has arrived at the bottom (hopefully) everywhere and it is about time to see how Europe can strengthen its production base again. From a sustainability perspective, the cheap production tourism around the world does not make much sense and that could drive a European electronics renaissance."
In terms of major product groups, the only group in the single-digit percent range of decline was memory (-6.5%). Of the two biggest groups Analogue shrunk by 20.7% compared to Q308 and MOS Micro by 27.7% (mainly driven by the steep fall of MPU revenues). Significantly better than average were DRAMs, RF Discretes, Higher-End Microcontrollers and Advanced Analogue products.
"With bookings currently exceeding billings by far and lead times increasing, we can already hope to see growth again in some product areas during Q4," says Steinberger, emphasising: "But not at a broad level."
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