Future Horizons is expecting 8% growth in the semiconductor industry this year and, if the economy bounces back, it could be as much as 20%.
"I believe what you’re going to see is a weak first half, particularly Q1, and then a bounce-back that could be 1% worst case and as much as 20% best case," said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons at IFS 2012 this morning in London, "if the economy bounces back the same way as it did after Lehman then it could be 20%."
"Our prediction is for 8% growth this year."
"But it’s not impossible that we could have a 20% growth year this year and a 25% growth year in 2013," said Penn.
The industry has been under-investing in capacity, added Penn, prices are trending up, a boost to world GDP could have dramatic effects to the upside.
Some predictions of negative growth in 2012 are simply "impossible", said Penn.
An indicator is TSMC’s strong Q1 order situation. "TSMC’s Q1 is everyone else’s Q2 so, if TSMC sees a strong Q1 then everyone else is expecting growth in Q2."
Another indicator is ASP growth. "ASPs increased last year," said Penn, "no one knows that; no one believes it. But ASPs are back on track they’re going up. There’s going to be quarterly ASP growth."
But, Penn pointed out: "The conventional wisdom of the industry leaders is that ASPs will keep on declining forever."