EDA tools are about to break down, according to Wally Rhines, CEO of leading EDA tools supplier Mentor Graphics.

"We're always talking about new technologies, but adoption takes a long time because engineers become comfortable with their design tools and design flow", Rhines told yesterdays's Globalpress Summit Conference in San Francisco. "Ease of use means what I'm using today. So adoption of new tools doesn't happen very often."

When it does happen is when things go wrong. "Adoption of new tools happens not when tools and flow don't work well, but when they don't work at all", added Rhines, "that's when a company is forced to decide: 'What do I need to do to get the next design out?'"

The big question is, asked Rhines rhetorically: "What is the next thing to break down?"

Answering himself he said: "There's one out and out winner: place and route. It breaks down nearly every two generations", said Rhines, "that means the existing tools cease to work. Anyone doing 45nm design is already struggling."

The phenomenon of EDA tools breaking down is not a new one. Rhines points to the big move from proprietary routers to standard routers made possible by the emergence of the fabless companies and exploited by Tangent, later acquired by Cadence.

Complexity then proved too much of a problem for Cadence which led to a spin-out from Cadence called Arcsys. "ArcSys could route chips which Cadence couldn't", said Rhines.

Further down the road came the show-stopper problem of timing closure which was solved by a new rash of companies like Magma, Sapphire, and Silicon Perspectives. 

Now it's about to happen again. The problems, reckons Rhines are variability in design and process, the problems of low-power design and large design data sizes.

"I believe the design flow is breaking mainly because of variability in manufacturing and design", said Rhines, "existing solutions won't solve the problem. Customers say: 'Make my tools work at the next node'. So existing companies have to allocate engineers to solve that problem. That's why it's always a start-up which wins the next generation".

Asked by Electronics Weekly which start up he thought would be the one to solve the place and route breakdown, Rhines replied: "There is only one company I know: Sierra Design Automation," he paused for dramatic effect, then added: "Only it's not called that anymore, it's now called Mentor Graphics".