Although Carlo Bozotti, CEO of STMicroelectronics, has cut his forecast for semiconductor industry growth this year to between four and five per cent, Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons reckons: "We can't make it much less than 7 per cent growth this year, and the balance of probability is in the 10 per cent region."

The consensus among the leading semiconductor industry analysts is around 4.5 per cent. Gartner Dataquest is saying 4.6 per cent; iSuppli is saying 4 per cent; the SIA is at 4.3 per cent; WSTS at 4.7 per cent and IC Insights at 7 per cent.

Even if Q2 is catastrophic, say well under 2 per cent growth, and no one is expecting that (for instance ST recorded 9 per cent growth for Q2 over Q3), Future Horizons expects significant market growth in Q3 of around 14 per cent, and Q4 growth of 6 per cent.

Penn pointed out that no forecasting organization, and no country anywhere in the world is forecasting GDP recession this year. The IMF is expecting world economic growth of 3.7 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent in 2009. India, China and South-East Asia are making up for the slower growth of the West.

"The new economies are growing at the expense of the old economies", concluded Penn, adding, "this is not a world which is falling apart. It's a world which is in quite good shape."

See also: Mannerisms, the blog of David Manners. Updated twice daily, it's the distinctive, entertaining, authoritative and never dull commentary on the semiconductor industry, from someone who knows. Sign up for the Mannerisms eNewsletter.