Although SEMI, the semiconductor industry production equipment manufacturers’ trade body, is expecting a 20% decrease in capex spending by the semiconductor industry this year, it sees a 20% increase next year on the back of 70 new fab-building projects.
SEMI’s World Fab Forecast report lists 53 fab equipping projects and up to 21 construction projects for fabs in 2009.
In 2008, 300mm projects make up about 90% of all fab equipment spending, while about 69% of all equipment spending is for 65nm and below technology nodes.
Overall annual semiconductor fab capacity in 2008 is expected to be about 16 million wafers (in 200mm equivalents), a growth rate of nine per cent compared to 17% capacity growth in 2007. In 2009, capacity is expected to grow about 10%.
Memory makes up the largest share of total semiconductor fab capacity with a 40% share in 2008, followed by foundries with over 20%, and logic with 15%. In 2009, memory will slightly increase its share to 42%, while foundries and logic are forecasted to remain at about the same share levels.
Many fab construction projects have been delayed during 2008 (with a decline in construction spending of -38% from 2007), but 2009 will show over 50% growth in construction spending when many of the pushed out projects begin.
Over most of the past decade, Japan has spent the largest share of money on equipping fabs. This will change in 2009 with Taiwan and S. Korea exceeding Japan in fab equipment and construction spending.
By 2009, the share in total spending throughout the Asia Pacific region (excluding Japan) will rise to over 67% (from 50% in 2006). In 2008, only four semiconductor companies spent over $1.5bn. In 2009, the World Fab Forecast predicts twice as many will spend at that level.