The squeeze on the telecommunications operators is the rising
demand for data and the falling revenue per megabyte, the
Avren Next Generation
Networks Conference in Bath was told earlier
this week.
"Between 2008 and 2015 there will be a 10x increase in traffic and
a 7x fall in revenue per MB. By 2015, 75% of traffic will be
generated indoors, and 95% of traffic will be data", said Terry
Mason of Analysys Mason.
"Traffic will grow because of: improved cellular services; 3G and
indoor coverage; affordable pricing; increasing size of content;
increasing cellular penetration and increasing indoor usage of
cellular devices."
He gave the following statistics for data traffic:
Operators need to lower network carriage costs with a linear
relationship between cost and capacity enhancement and no big
incremental costs; an end-to-end IP capability; a cost-effective
indoor solution via WiFi or femtocell.
Mason went on to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the
various technologies involved: Evolved EDGE; HSPA. HSPA+, LTE, and
Wimax.
Evolved EDGE has the advantage of being a low-cost software build
on existing GSM sites using existing frequency plans. It is good
for rural areas allowing the postponement of network upgrades in
rural areas. However data rates are limited, WAP met with limited
customer support, there's "particularly poor device support", and
it can be replaced by UMTS900 and LTE900.
HSPA+ has the advantage of having, with MIMO, a comparable
performance to LTE. Its weaknesses are diminishing spectral
efficiency, limited capacity improvements, that dual carriers are
not effective and that MIMO upgrades are not cost-effective use of
site visit time.
LTE has the advantages of: reduced network carriage costs,
access to 2.6GHz and associated bandwidth, improved spectral
efficiency compared to WCDMA. LTE's weaknesses are that it requires
new hardware in both access and voice, it has no voice as yet, it
has strong competition from fixed link, in 5MHz HSPA+ may be
preferred, and local spectrum at 2.6GHz is delayed.
Lastly, Wimax. "Wimax might have had its day", said Mason, "it
has not been able to leverage its opportunity because of lack of
devices and lack of spectrum. If 2.8GHz had been available we might
be seeing a different landscape."
As it is Mason sees the disadvantages of Wimax overcoming its
advantages. A major disadvantage is the "huge installed base of
UMTS, with LTE being a natural evolution" from that.
Other reasons given by Mason for the comparative likely
insignificance of Wimax are the fact that, although positioned as a
competitor to UMTS, it does not have voice capability, and because
"unlicensed bands are inherently noisy".
"LTE offers an almost identical capability", said mason, "HSPA+
is also a threat in providing mobile broadband and the convergence
of LTE and 802.16 may overwhelm Wimax".
The choices will be business decisions. "In choosing which
technology", said Mason, "the trade off is between risk and
capacity."
Mason reckons that 90% of the 100 million Wimax customers in
2015 will be in developing regions where ADSL coverage at broadband
speeds is poor.
See also:
Electronics Weekly's
Focus on WiMAX, a roundup of content related
to the next-gen wireless comms technology
See also: Mannerisms, the blog of David
Manners. Updated twice daily, it's the distinctive, entertaining,
authoritative and never dull commentary on the semiconductor
industry, from someone who knows.
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