Investment in fab construction will double next year and
spending on equipping fabs may increase by about 90% in 2010
compared to 2009, according to
SEMI, the trade body for the semiconductor
production equipment industry.
At less than $2bn, fab construction spending in 2009 will be at
the lowest level in the past ten years, says SEMI, which expects
spending on equipping facilities (R&Ds, pilot and volume fabs)
to decline by 50% in 2009 compared to 2008.
Spending on fab construction projects has declined quarterly
since 2008 and, on a year-over-year basis, is expected to fall by
56% in 2009. 'Construction spending in South Korea has almost
stopped and is at a bare minimum in Southeast Asia', says SEMI.
However, SEMI reports that there will be some increase in
investment for both fab construction projects and fab equipping in
the 2nd half of 2009, with the trend continuing into 2010.
Intel announced a total investment of $7bn over the next two
years, as it upgrades fabs to 32nm. In 2008, Intel was the third
largest spender for fabs equipping, and is now expected to jump to
the top spending position for both 2009 and 2010, surpassing
Samsung and Flash Alliance (the Toshiba-SanDisk partnership), the
top two spenders in 2008.
When the AMD spin-off
Globalfoundries was launched at the
beginning of 2009, it committed to spend a minimum of $3.6bn, and
up to $6bn over the next five years, via Advanced Technology
Investment Company (ATIC), which holds over 65% of Globalfoundries.
These funds will ATIC's facilities in Dresden, Germany, and in
upstate New York. The Luther Forest fab in Malta, New York is
expected to begin construction by mid-2009, with an investment of
about $4bn.
At the only fab south of the Rio Grande, CEITEC of Brazil - an
RFID and analogue company - the company is hiring new employees to
ramp their 50,000 wafer a year, 200mm fab.
Several new fabs are expected to begin construction in 2009:
three in Europe/Mideast (including Russia) and two in the Americas.
Only one of the new facilities will be a high volume fab
(Globalfoundries). In 2010, about seven facilities are expected to
begin construction; of these, five are considered high-volume
fabs.
Almost all foundries have announced that utilization rates will
increase, from the 30-40% range in 1Q09 to 60-75% in 2Q09, while
some 300mm foundry fabs are reportedly running fully loaded this
month, says SEMI, Vanguard International (VIS) expects to see
positive gross margin in 2Q09 with fab utilization rates climbing
to 60% in 2Q09 from 33% in 1Q09. UMC's utilisation rate in 1Q09 was
30%, but is expected it to reach 75% in 2Q09. SMIC, with the help
from local demand, expects to be profitable in 4Q09.
See also: Mannerisms, the blog of David
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