See also: The Electronics Weekly focus on solar cells and photovoltaic technology
As the semiconductor industry struggles to survive a prolonged economic crisis combined with the latest industry down cycle, more device makers and manufacturing suppliers are looking to the photovoltaics 
industry for hopes of renewed revenue stream. IC Insights (Scottsdale, Ariz.), a market analyst that works primarily in the semiconductor space, is approaching the PV industry from this increasingly common perspective, aiming to help fellow semiconductor industry participants get a handle on this burgeoning market.
A new report, Solar Energy: 
Growth Opportunities for the Semiconductor Industry, examines opportunities for chip manufacturers and chip equipment and materials suppliers alike, according to Jeremy Young, market analyst and author of the report. "For example, we discussed the commonality of some of the process technology, both with chipmaking and, in the case of thin-film panels, with LCD manufacturing," he said. "We talk about some of the process expertise that could be transferrable to solar, and also discussed the starkly different manufacturing priorities that solar PV manufacturers have — emphasizing massive throughput, for example, and uptime requirements driven by the fact that equipment downtime can shut down an entire line, not just a fab module."
Some chipmakers have talked openly about their recent explorations of solar manufacturing, such as Samsung and Micron, and more recently TSMC has reportedly been considering such a move. IC Insights' report looks at some of the factors that may make it attractive to convert an old chip fab into a solar cell manufacturing facility, and other factors that could make such a conversion too expensive or impractical.
"In addition, we have a forecast of semiconductors (other than the PV devices themselves) used in solar systems, broken down by device type, which is something I have not seen anywhere else," Young said. "We are forecasting that the market for semiconductors used in solar systems will triple over the forecast period (2008 through 2013), although it is not a very big market just yet."
IC Insights also makes predictions about the PV industry as a whole, balancing the downside of plummeting solar demand caused by the recession and credit crunch with an optimistic view about the role of government incentives around the world in driving new installations starting in 2010. Although global PV installations are predicted to drop 22% this year and panel prices expected to fall 28%, the analyst forecasts installations to grow 37% in 2010, with a 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the 2008-2013 forecast period. The growth is expected to come as a result of new government incentives in the United States, Europe and China, and lower panel prices that will make solar a more attractive proposition even as government incentives taper off.
The skinny on thin film
There seems to be little variation among analysts about PV's long-term growth potential, but more debate tends to enter the picture when discussing how the various technology candidates are likely to capture market share. Bulk crystalline silicon is the technology to beat, hanging onto close to 90% of the market with its relatively high conversion efficiencies. But there is much speculation of how quickly the thin-film (TF) sector will grow. A recent prediction from Linx Consulting, for example, calls for 40% growth of thin film by 2015. Lita Shon-Roy, senior managing partner at Techcet Group (Del Mar, Calif.), however, thinks that prediction is off-base given how silicon prices have dropped.
IC Insights strikes a balance between the extremes, predicting an increase from 14% in 2008 to 27% in 2013. "We agree with Lita that the big drop in the cost of polysilicon and the explosion of polysilicon capacity is a major factor weighing in favor of wafer-based PV over the next five years," Young said. "But we also recognize that on a dollar-per-watt basis for installed PV capacity, TF is already significantly ahead of wafers, and that's no small thing." There is potential to bring the cost per watt down further and faster in the thin-film space, he added. "We don't think it will be long before roll-to-roll TF manufacturers will start to ramp production to significant levels, for example."
But the space efficiency of thin-film technologies is still far behind that for bulk silicon, requiring much more square footage for a given wattage capacity. "That's going to limit TF usage on rooftops, where we believe PV offers greatest advantage; power losses in transmission lines from remote sites can be very significant, so power produced near the point of use has a big efficiency advantage on that basis," Young said. "The small-roof advantage of wafers will not go away until we see a major breakthrough in the efficiency of TF panels, and that appears to be a tough nut to crack, with progress likely to be incremental rather than revolutionary."
Aaron Hand, Executive Editor, Electronic Media - Semiconductor International
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