The recent release of WSTS figures for the July
semiconductor market show that the recovery continues.
July was a $18bn semiconductor sales month and represented the
fifth month in a row that sales grew. Analyst
Future Horizons, reported
that a $50bn sales quarter in Q2, which was 16.9% up on Q1, shows
the chip recession is over.
'July's WSTS results showed the industry recovery is continuing
to gain momentum, with total semiconductor growth down 9.6% versus
July 2008, up from minus 25.8% in June 2009', says Future
Horizons.
'This is in line with our negative 14% year-on-year growth rate
for the whole of 2009 and our 12 sequential third quarter growth
projection. Indeed, these forecasts are now virtually in the bag,
only a further economic meltdown of Lehman's Brothers proportion
can now derail the chip market recovery. At least for now the chip
market recovery is in full swing. It's going to be a really lovely
day tomorrow.'
Future Horizons adds: ' 2009's market is coming in at around
$215bn.
Mathematically, a US$215 billion 2009 chip market would result
in a market the same size as it was in 2004, a five-year Compound
Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.2 percent .CAGRs are notoriously
flawed and over successive five-year periods from 1999 to 2010 vary
dramatically, from 0.2 percent to 12.7 percent. The numbers need to
be interpreted carefully in an industry where the supply-side
dynamics are driven by long (five year) design and investment
decisions and the demand-side works on lead-times measured in
months. The reality is there is no substitute for a long-term plan
with clear CEO vision and direction.'