Semiconductor supply chain has felt the pain this year, but no
one is writing off the chance of a modest recovery in 2010.
According to market watcher Strategy Analytics, chip sales
year-on-year to car manufacturers will be down 14% in 2009.
Automotive chip sales are expected to come in at around
$16.4bn.
But there is the chance of "a similarly-sized percentage
recovery in 2010", according to the Strategy Analytics Automotive
Electronics Service research,
“Automotive Semiconductor
Forecast Demand 2007 – 2016.”
The analyst sees some signs that a market recovery is underway and
that automotive semiconductor demand, including sensors, could grow
in 2010 by 14%. This would be a slower recovery than previously
forecast.
"The actual extent of the 2010 global recovery will be largely
dependent upon the North American market,” stated Chris Webber, v-p
Global Automotive Practice at Strategy Analytics.
The dramatic fall in global vehicle production in 2009 will
result in the largest ever fall in automotive semiconductor
revenues.
“Semiconductor vendor revenues in 2009 will take a double hit:
one from the vehicle production fall, and again from the supply
chain inventory clearing that occurred at the beginning of the
year, putting a virtual stop on orders from electronic tier ones,"
said Webber.
So it is possible that some suppliers could see even bigger
declines in their 2009 business.
The long-term outlook remains strong. Compound annual average
growth rate is running at eight percent as vehicle makers look to
electronics to meet emissions and safety legislation, as well as
meeting consumer expectation for increasingly personalised and
connected vehicles.
"For leading automotive semiconductor vendors, such as
Freescale, Infineon, ST, NEC and Renesas, the long term business
opportunities are unchanged by the recession,” said Webber.