2010 Semiconductor market growth forecasts range from 10% to 22%
growth according to the consulting company,
Semiconductor Intelligence.
The latest autumn forecasts from market research firms and
industry associations expect the 2009 semiconductor market will
decline from 10% to 13% from 2008.
So 2009 will wind up as the third worst market decline in the
last 25 years, after a 32% decline in 2001 and a 17% decline in
1985.
The forecasts all predict growth in 2010, but vary from a modest
10% to a robust 22%. The forecasts are:
Semiconductor Market Forecasts:
- Source Date 2009 2010
- iSuppli Oct. -16.5% 14%
- Semico Research Oct. -12.5% 20%
- Future Horizons Nov. -10.0% 22%
- IC Insights Nov. -13.0% 15%
- SIA Nov. -11.6% 10%
- Gartner Nov. -11.4% 13%
- WSTS Nov. -11.5% 12%
- Semiconductor Intelligence Nov. -11.0% 22%
The three most recent forecasts from WSTS (World Semiconductor
Trade Statistics), SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association), and
Gartner call for 2009 to decline about 11.5%, which would imply
fourth quarter 2009 would be about flat with third quarter
2009.
The forecasts for 2010 range from 10% from SIA to 22% from
Future Horizons. Semiconductor Intelligence 2010 will be at the
high end of the forecasts, with growth of 22%.
Semiconductor Intelligence believes the 4th quarter of 2009 will
show moderate growth of about 2.6%, leading to a year 2009 decline
of 11.0%.
Major semiconductor companies have mixed guidance for 4th
quarter revenue growth versus 3rd quarter. On the high end, the
midpoint of the forecast range for Intel is 7.4% and for STM is
8.6%. TI's midpoint is 0.7%. AMD said revenues will be "up
modestly" and Samsung said 4th quarter revenues would be
"solid".
What would the quarter-to-quarter growth need to be in 2010 to
drive annual growth of 22%? An average quarterly growth of a
moderate 2.5% would drive 22% growth for the year. However, the
semiconductor market is anything but steady.
The 22% growth in 2010 is dependent upon a continuing modest
recovery in world economies and electronics markets. If the 2010
economic recovery is stronger than current expectations,
semiconductor market percentage growth could be in the upper
twenties.
A weaker than expected economic recovery (or a slip back into
recession) could result in semiconductor market growth in the lower
teens, as in some of the above forecasts.
See also:
Mannerisms, the blog of David Manners. Updated twice daily,
it's the distinctive, entertaining, authoritative and never dull
commentary on the semiconductor industry, from someone who knows.
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