The semiconductor industry continues to polarise with the top ten companies expected to spend two thirds of the total capex and the top three, Intel, Samsung and TSMC, expected to spend over a third of the total.
IC Insights, the US market analysis company, says that the proportion of capex spent by the top ten will increase in 2010 because the industry will increase capex by 51% but the top ten will increase their capex by 67%.
'Moreover, if Intel were excluded, the remaining nine companies in the top 10 ranking would increase their spending by 91% in 2010!' says IC Insights.
IC Insights expects Samsung to be the largest spender in 2010. Samsung expects to spend $4.7bn for memory this year, and IC Insights reckons total spend could top $6bn.
'Intel is in no rush to add significant capacity', says IC Insights, 'considering the company holds about 85% of the total MPU market, it knows how much MPU capacity is really needed and it will not overspend. Expect MPUs to remain relatively scarce this year as Intel (and AMD) would like to enjoy firming average selling
prices (ASPs) for awhile longer.'
Spurred by the challenge from the GlobalFoundries, TSMC is significantly ramping up its capital spending plans, planning a 79% increase in capital outlays this year. The $4.8bn budget for 2010 is the highest level of spending by TSMC since 2000.
Although flash memory demand is booming, Toshiba is very sensitive to the
overspending/overcapacity history of the memory market (which drove it out of the DRAM segment). 'Look for the company to be aggressive but not overly so', says IC Insights.
Top Ten Capex Spenders 2010
$bn % increase on 09
Samsung 5.0 42
Intel 4.9 9
TSMC 4.8 79
Toshiba 2.0 105
AMD/Globalfoundries 1.9 308
Hynix 1.8 115
Micron 1.7 114
Nanya 1.4 121
UMC 1.3 145
Elpida 1.0 87