Although April semiconductor sales showed a 7.6% decline on March, if you factor in the fact that March was a five week month, the April figure represents a 15.5% growth, according to the June report of Europe’s leading semiconductor analyst company, Future Horizons.
"This is the strongest April month-on-month growth since April 1996," said the report.
"This growth is not however directly driven by increased end-user demand," continued the report, calling it a correction to the steep Q4-08/Q1-09 inventory declines.
"In other words, the markets clearly over-reacted to the September 2008 global economic collapse, sucking the supply chain dry, paving the way for this counter-balancing period of inventory replenishment," said the report.
Future Horizons expects this period of inventory replenishment to last until Q309 when any further growth will depend on the underlying end-market demand.
"Q209 looks to be coming in with growth in the 4 to 5% range, versus our minus 2% January estimate. If true, this would represent a material change to our 2009 forecast, improving it from minus 28% to minus 21.3%," said the report.
The recession has hit every market and geographic region, with Japan and| Taiwan/China the worst hit, the latter however being the first to show a rebound.
The mobile and PC industry sectors have been hit badly by the discretional consumer spending slowdown, with Q109 phone and PC unit sales down 16% and 20% respectively versus Q108.
"Given the magnitude of these declines – all markets, all sectors, all regions, all customers, consumers and enterprise – the industry and chip market exited the first quarter in remarkably good shape relatively speaking," concludes Future Horizons, "that is not to say it will be plain sailing hereon out, far from it, but that the industry has clearly weathered the worst of the storm, bloodied but (mostly) not beaten."