The semiconductor market is going back to double digit annual growth rates for the next five years, it was stated at Future Horizons' IFS 2010 in London this morning.
"That's not that far from the long-term industry growth rate of 14%", said Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, "the fundamentals of the chip industry are fantastic. We're starting the recovery with shortages. What is it going to be like in a year's time? Capacity is still tight and capex is still weak. There are no significant capacity increases in the pipeline for the next 12 months. This is as good as it gets."
Future Horizons forecast a 22% increase in the market this year based on growth of minus 1% in Q1, a flat Q2 +6% in Q3 and plus 2% in Q4 but accepts that the quarterly scenario could easily be +2, +4. +12, +4 giving annual growth of 31%.
See also: Mannerisms, the blog of David Manners
Penn discounts the SIA forecast of 12% saying: "You never see a trade organisation give a real forecast", explaining that they have to publish a consensus acceptable to their membership, and the membership will want that consensus figure kept low to avoid pressure from shareholders and financial analysts.
"We're on-track for a $60bn memory market in 2010 - currently it's trailing $25bn - and $20bn of that $60bn will be pure profit," said Penn.
Next year, Future Horizons is forecasting 28% growth, 2012 is expected to be up 18%, 2013 is expected to be up 3% and 2014 is expected to grow 12%.