US analyst company Gartner Dataquest has increased its semiconductor sales forecast for 2009. Instead of a 22% decline in revenues this year it now expects a 17% decline as a result of better demand for TVs, PCs and mobile phones.
"The semiconductor market has performed better than expected, as was evident when second quarter semiconductor revenue increased 17 percent in sequential sales," says Bryan Lewis, vice president for research at Gartner Dataquest, "consumers reacted strongly to reduced PC and LCD TV pricing as price elasticity was amazing. The industry also benefited from the China stimulus package that worked remarkably well to boost short-term demand. Governments world wide took action quickly and extensively to avoid a meltdown, and it worked."
The company reckons the semiconductor market will be worth $212bn this year, compared to $255bn in 2008 and forecasts a rise of 10.3% next year for the market to top $233bn.
The ASSP market will decline 16.5% to $57.2bn, says Gartner, memory will decline 13.5% to $41bn, and microcomponents will decline 19.2% to $39.4bn.
"The fourth quarter of 2009 and first quarter 2010 will be extremely important in shaping the annual growth for 2010", said Lewis.
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"We are currently expecting the fourth quarter of 2009 to be slightly positive, in line with typical season patterns," says Lewis, "but foundries have reported they are concerned that demand may drop of more than seasonal in the fourth quarter and it may carry into first quarter of 2010. Gartner 's most likely scenario is calling for a negative 5 percent growth in the first quarter of 2010 as customers take a pause and absorb all the devices they purchased over the previous three quarters."
In Q2, points out Gartner, Samsung had a 30% sales revenue rise, and Qualcomm a 35.7% sales rise.
Europe's leading semiconductor analyst, Future Horizons, reckons the semiconductor industry will grow 19% in 2010; 28% in 2011 and 18% in 2012.
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