2011 will be a very strong year for the chip industry, and 2012 will be a double-digit boom, says the Future Horizons January semiconductor report.
The IMF expects the world economy to grow 4.2% in 2011, yet the semiconductor industry’s capacity is sold out, capex is flat and the book-to-bill below parity.
ASPs have been increasing since Q209 - six quarters in a row, unit volumes are following their usual 11% annual growth, there is no excess inventory and no
excess capacity to build any.
The industry fundamentals are in good shape, says the report, instancing:
A continuing capex famine, despite 2010’s 140 % capex growth.
A falling capex book-to-bill since August 2010.
Six successive quarters of flat industry capacity, cruising well below excess capacity threshold levels.
‘Shortages everywhere,’ says the report, ‘from substrates (e.g. 200mm wafers), equipment (try buying an immersion stepper or single wafer epi reactor), to lead frames (especially given the desire to move from gold to copper-based packaging) Industrial and automotive products are now completely sold out, even memories are starting to get tight.’