Prices are plummeting, demand is erratic, output is soaring, so the industry is piling on new production capacity. That's the semiconductor industry.
Toshiba and SanDisk have inked a preliminary deal to get their next joint venture fab running wafers by 2010. It is currently ramping its Yokkaichi fab which moves to a 43nm process next month.
According to the boss of Toshiba Corporation, Atsutoshi Nishida, this is the year Toshiba overtakes Samsung to become the world's largest manufacturer of NAND flash.
It is quite a task. Samsung has 40 per cent market share in NAND flash. Toshiba has 27 per cent share. But Yokkaichi is quite a fab, expected to be outputting 80,000 wafers a month by the end of the year with the capability of expansion to 200,000 wpm.
The site of the new 2010 fab has not yet been decided.
It might be thought that the Toshiba's enthusiasm for the NAND market comes against a market demonstrating rampant growth but, according to Nam Hyung Kim, director and chief memory analyst for iSuppli, NAND prices could fall by 55 per cent this year.
That is not as bad as it sounds, Moore's law pricing means that memory chip prices should naturally decline by 30 per cent a year, but it does show the iron nerve required by those who manage the chip business.