Convergence is a lovely idea for the chip industry but a poor idea for consumers.
The two best-selling products of the last few years have been the Blackberry and the iPod, both, effectively, single-purpose devices. One a mobile email terminal; the other a mobile music player. Both flying in the face of the contemporary mantra of convergence.
For the chip industry, convergence is a lovely idea because it fits in so well with what the chip industry does best i.e. adding more functions to the same sized piece of silicon for the same cost under the Moore’s Law principle.
But one remembers Gordon Moore expressing his disappointment at the lack of appreciation of convergence by consumers when, some 30 years ago, Intel went into the digital watch business.
“We thought the digital watch would become part of an electronic system which would grow”, said Moore. It didn’t.
Two decades later, the mobile phone industry, despite many efforts to add functionality, has managed only to make camera functions ubiquitous on handsets.
People only wanted digital watches to tell the time. They only want mobile phones to make phone conversations. They want a Blackberry only to send and receive emails. And an iPod to store and play music.
As the October Update of the Future Horizons monthly report points out that:
"The market is favouring low-end phones and the supply chain vice versa."
The report goes on to complain:
"Today's high-end phones are simply too difficult to use and overly complex to operate. By our reckoning an awful lot of people who bought 3G handsets experienced a high degree of user frustration for very little (if any) benefit."
Convergence is a chip industry pipedream. Consumers want it simple.
Comments (3)
What about cameras on mobile phones? It's pretty hard now to find a phone that doesn't have a camera built in - generally one that can capture video as well as stills.
It's true that single-function devices generally perform better at that function that multi-function gadgets, but there's always a trade-off between performance and the size of your pockets - you can only carry around so many gizmos.
Posted by Karl Schneider | November 1, 2006 7:02 PM
Posted on November 1, 2006 19:02
Aren't we still at the very early stages of this - sort of where cars were when they had a man with a red flag walking in front? Some day, a silicon Henry Ford will show up, and figure out a way of making all this stuff cheap, easy to use and reliable. Then we'll be really rolling. Look how 'converged' the average car is these days.
Posted by Peter van der Sluijs | November 8, 2006 2:08 PM
Posted on November 8, 2006 14:08
Thanks Peter, I'm sure you're right and that it will happen. But silicon integration goes back 40 years, and converged consumer products haven't really happened yet.
Posted by David Manners | November 8, 2006 2:28 PM
Posted on November 8, 2006 14:28