SEMI, the equipment people, have come up with encouraging industry news - that device manufacturers will only increase their capital spending on equipment by three per cent and their spending on fab construction by between four to five per cent this year.
So 2008 should be an OK year for device prices, if spending on capacity is going to increase so little, and when capex spending translates into product out the door twelve months later.
It's particularly good news when you think that the average spend on equipment is 17 per cent of sales, and sales are expected to grow in single digit figures this year.
Obviously, so long as the rise in capex stays in step with the rise in sales, there won't be any glut next year.
It's this year that could be a bit of a problem. SEMI reports that spending for fab equipment last year rose 25 per cent, but the device market only grew 10 per cent.
That's an imbalance which could already be showing through in the low price of memory with extra spending by memory manufacturers encouraged by expectations that Vista would boost the computer market. Utilisation rates are now slipping, prices are weakish.
There are 30 major fab construction projects in the world, says SEMI, and another 30 fabs which will start volume production this year. Next year only 16 new fabs are planned to move into production in the first nine months of the year.
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