Being a high-tech CEO, and being certain about anything, appear to be incompatible these days.
Look at poor old Michael Dell, having to think about flogging his stuff in Walmart after all these years as a direct sales guy, and puzzling away about how to get further into IT services a la IBM and HP.
Think about poor old Sony, wedded to the notion that multi-billion dollar, microprocessor technology like Cell, and blue laser-based DVD technology, would secure its lead in the games market. Now the Nintendo Wii, with no comparable investment, but some clever use of sensors, is out-selling PS3 five-to-one in Japan.
Weep with the poor old mobile phone manufacturers, scratching their heads trying to figure out why the growth of cheapo simple phones is so much faster than the growth of complex, expensive phones.
With radical, violent, change now the industry norm, it's surprising that so many CEOs give keynote addresses to conferences.
If they were honest they'd get up and say: 'I'm sorry I haven't a clue'. In fact that was rather the impression I got from hearing the deliveries of various prominent CEOs at the Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show earlier this year.
But they have to pretend to know. They have to give, even if it's just for their employees' feelings of security, an impression that they are on the ball, and have a plausible view of the future.
It must be hell.
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