Even in a poor capex spending year, and a particularly bad year for memory so far, SEMI, the equipment trade body, is reporting strong investment in manufacturing capacity by two sectors of the industry: memory companies and foundries.
This year is expected to see an overall decline in spending on fab of -1.6 per cent, but next year is expected to see massive growth of 40 per cent.
Because of the time-lag behind investment and wafers out, SEMI expects a 17 per cent increase in worldwide fab capacity in 2007 and about 11 percent in 2008.
The relationship of investment to manufacturing is summed up by Future Horizons in the following propositions:
. wafer fab capex = 70 per cent of total equipment capex
. total equipment capex = 85 per cent of total capex
. wafer fab capex = additional capacity 2 quarters later
. additional capacity = IC units out one quarter later
NB: Add one quarter lead-time to for fab book-to-bill
So: Kit ordered today = units out in 12 months time.
The 07 spending at the memory companies is, says SEMI: Qimonda is investing Euros2bn in a 300mm fab in Singapore, ProMOS of Taiwan is investing $1.7bn on fab capacity, Rexchip the joint venture between Elpida and Powerchip, is spending $2bn in 2007, Samsung will spend $5bn and four other companies, including Intel, Micron, Toshiba and Hynix will each be spending over $2bn each.
Memory products will comprise about 38 per cent of all worldwide capacity this year and 40 per cent in 2008, says SEMI, with more than half of this memory capacity coming from four companies (with their JVs): Samsung, Hynix, Toshiba and Micron.
Capital spending at the foundries is, says SEMI: at TSMC about $2.7bn in 07, Chartered will spend $800m, UMC plans to spend about $1.1bn, and SMIC has announced a capital budget of $720m this year.
SEMI expects that only ten companies will be responsible for about 70 per cent ($25bn worth) of fab equipment spending in 2007.
The largest 5 spenders in 2007 and 2008 are expected to be Samsung, Hynix, Toshiba, Intel and Micron, with their joint ventures.
Worldwide 300 mm capacity will double from about 3m wafers per month at the beginning of 2007 to over 6m wpm by the end of 2008.
In 2007, sixteen 300 mm volume fabs are coming online and in 2008 nine 300mm volume fabs.
Three years ago, typical 300 mm fabs could produce 30,000 wpm, says SEMI, now, “Megafabs” capable of producing 100,000 to 210,000 wpm, or over one million wafers per year with shorter ramp times, are being constructed.
Companies build fewer 300 mm fabs, but larger fabs, says SEMI. At the beginning of 2006, 40 300 mm fabs provided about 2m wpm in 200 mm equivalents.
By the end of 2007 EMI expects 65 300 mm fabs to be providing 5m wpm in 200 mm equivalents.
By the end of 2008 73 300 mm fabs will provide over 6.2m wpm in 200mm equivalents.
In the two years of 2007 and 2008 25 volume fabs will come online.
Subscribe to this blog's feed