If there is to be more consolidation in the Japanese semiconductor industry, and it looks as if there will be, then Toshiba would appear to be the most lkely consolidator.
The process has already started after Sony badly miscalculated demand for PlayStation 3, and the consequent demand for Cell processors, and built a big production facility in Kyushu which is now standing unused. Toshiba is said to have agreed to take it over.
Further out there is the question of what will happen with NEC Electronics and Fujitsu’s Electronic Devices Division. Neither can afford to build a new fab after 45nm, but each has similar process technology to Toshiba’s because the three companies collaborate on process development.
Toshiba has lots of money because of its success in the NAND flash business. Recently it opened a fully facilitised 80,000 wafer a month fab built with its NAND partner SanDisk.
However, Toshiba might not be so willing to invest in a new fab for its system LSI business which is not so big.
Toshiba might be prepared to collaborate with NEC and Fujitsu on a joint fab but, on the other hand, it might prefer to merge with the two companies to form one large entity with both a strong system LSI business and a strong NAND business.
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