Two of Gartner Dataquest’s predictions for the next four years could be feed off eachother: first, that Apple will double its unit market share in the US and Europe by 2011, and second, that half of all travelling workers will leave their laptops at home in favour of other devices by 2012.
Apple is probably best placed to produce a device which is both a useful working computer and a phone, and fits in your inside jacket pocket.
A virtual keyboard, touch-screen control and a high quality display should do the computing trick, while a souped-up iPhone should do the rest.
But will Apple carry it off? Maybe in the US, but not in Europe. The iPhone had a dodgy launch, compounded by a greedy contract and Apple’s reticence on revealing launch figures. Both were a blow it its credibility. Furthermore, Apple has reputation for poor build quality in their iPods.
Moreover the Apple Air, the new super-thin laptop, is thin, but not light, and certainly not small and absurdly under-specced (e.g. one USB).
Somehow Apple has lost the European plot. While many Americans seem content, even proud, to lug their 6lb laptops around, Europeans like to have that sort of kit hidden somewhere in their clothing.
As witness the Psion 5. BA’s Business Class used to be full of guys working away on Psion 5s.
So while both the Gartner predictions could both be right, that will only happen if Apple produces something which does all the necessary computing and phone functions in a Psion 5 form factor.
If Apple doesn’t make something like that, then Apple probably won’t double its market share in the US and Europe by 2011.
But the other Gartner prediction may well come true, that people will ditch their laptops, and the company producing the computing-communicating device which replaces laptops for travelling workers will, most likely, come from Taiwan.
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