It’s funny to see Intel, TSMC and Samsung saying they want 450mm wafer manufacturing. Wouldn’t any device manufacturer? The question is: Will Samsung, Intel and TSMC pay for it?
As sure as eggs are eggs, no one else can afford it. The cost of transitioning to 450mm wafers is estimated at $100 billion.
The last transition, from 200mm to 300mm was very generously funded by the Federal Government of Germany, persuaded by Ulrich Schumacher, head of Siemens Semiconductors later to become Infineon Technologies, that this would be a big, prestige, technology-busting programme to promote national pride.
IBM led a previous transition. But who will lead this one? Answer: No one. Unless the China government can be persuaded to stump up.
But to do so would involve the China government spending about five times more than they are spending on the Olympic Games, so it seems unlikely.
Not only do the equipment makers, Applied, Novellus, ASML and Lam Research think that embarking on a 450mm transition programme now is a silly idea, but it would be a lousy idea for their businesses because 450mm fabs, at $6 billion to $10 billion apiece, would significantly reduce their customer base.
And the equipment guys say they haven’t yet got a return on their development costs for 300mm. They certainly haven’t got the money to even begin to think about funding a 450mm development programme themselves.
Curiously, Samsung, Intel and TSMC are said to be talking about a 300mm-450mm transition taking place in 2012 yet, under the industry rule of thumb, it is not until the latest wafer size accounts for half of all the industry’s wafer output, that it is time to start manufacturing on the next size of wafer. By this measure, 450mm should start in 2014.
But without anyone emerging who is willing to stump up $100 billion, there’s little chance of it happening by 2025. If ever.
Of course, Intel, Samsung and TSMC would like to see 450mm wafer manufacturing. Wouldn't any manufacturer like to halve his cost of manufacturing a product?
But Intel, Samsung and TSMC have one thing to do before they start the industry off on a chase to 450mm. Get real.
TOMORROW MORNING: TEN REASONS NOT TO BE IN ICs, BY DWIGHT DECKER
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