Mannerisms

Over lunch today at the International Electronics Forum 2008 in Dubai, I asked Dr Pinto what, in his opinion, was the motivation for the Samsung, Intel, TSMC announcement. “It’s because no one else in the industry wants 450mm wafers”, replied Pinto.

So it looks as if the trio are trying to bounce the industry into a project in which the industry is very reluctant to engage.

What might justify 450mm in the future? I asked. “If scaling ends”, replied Pinto.

Clearly, if it becomes impossible to scale, then the introduction of 450mm wafers would be an alternative way to reduce cost.

For the time being, instead of looking to 450mm wafers, fab owners should find way to reduce production costs and reduce cycle times, according to Pinto. “That’s what their customers want”, said Pinto.

Pinto said the advantages of 450mm were unarguable, and that 450mm would be a big advantage in reducing device cost, but the expense would be prohibitive. “If we’re going to go to 32nm and 22nm and beyond, and do 450mm as well, the costs are just huge,”
He said.

It is estimated that the cost of a 300mm-450mm transition would be $100 billion and the costs of developing 450mm tools could be as high as a trillion dollars.

There’s just no way that the industry can fund that transition under its present structure.

Agreeing with Pinto, Dr Susumu Kohyama, president and CEO of materials specialist Covalent Materials pointed out the huge difficulties in producing a 450mm wafer sufficiently robust to withstand the stresses of processing.

“In the future we may find a material which is capable of producing a 450mm wafer,” said Kohyama, “but not now.”