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Solar Investment To Match Semi Investment In Two Years

That Intel Capital is putting $50 million into a photovoltaic (PV) cell manufacturing joint venture seems peanuts if iSuppli is right in its claim that worldwide investment in the production of PV cells will rise to the same level as those for semiconductor manufacturing by 2010.

 

 Intel's solar joint venture partners are Cogentrix Energy, PCG Clean Energy and Technology Fund and Solon AG. It intends to break ground on its manufacturing and development facility in Oregon in 2H 2008 and to ship first products shipping in mid-2009.

 

According to iSuppli, global production of PV cells is expected to reach 12 GigaWatts (GW) by 2010, up from 3.5GW in 2007, and each new PV factory will require an investment of $500 million and more, will employ as many as 1,000 workers per site, and will generate annual revenue of $1 billion per year or more, putting them into the size, cost and employment range of semiconductor fabs..

 

By 2010, 400 production lines in the world that can each produce at least 1 MegaWatt (MW) of PV cells per year will be in place, representing a four-fold increase from about 90 to 100 production lines in 2007, says iSuppli. 1GW plants are on the way

 

"The market for PV cells is estimated to grow by 40 percent annually until 2010, and 20 percent beyond," says Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst, MEMS and photovoltaics at  iSuppli, "nearly all market participants plan to increase their sales by 40 to 50 per cent per year during the next few years."

 

If you look at the latest results of the world's largest manufacturer of semiconductor equipment,  Applied Materials, it seems that, in Q2 08, Applied had sales of  $1.27 billion worth of equipment for manufacturing LCDs and PVs, representing 59 per cent of its total sales, but received new orders for IC manufacturing equipment, amounting to $2.15 billion, representing only 44 per cent of Applied's total new orders.

 

 Applied said that, this year, it expected IC manufacturing equipment sales  to drop  25 to 35 per cent while sales into the display industry are expected to be up 50 per cent, and sales to the solar industry are expected to show 'strong growth'.

 

Projections show the world will need three to four times more electrical  power over the next 50 years to support continued growth in population and economic output, according to Wicht, and by 2100, 80 percent of energy must be generated from renewable sources, according to the German Advisory Council On Global Change.

 

PV cell makers Q-Cells AG and REC Group said they expect a reduction in PV system costs by 40 percent from 2006 to 2010, said iSuppli.

 

With these cost reductions, many regions throughout the world will soon reach grid parity--a point at which PV electricity costs the same or less than power derived from the electrical grid.  PV grid parity is expected beginning in 2012 in nations where sunshine is plentiful and constant, and 2018 in areas of the world with adequate or medium sun exposure

 

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