There seems to be a schism opening up between the semiconductor industry and the semiconductor production equipment industry.
Intel, Samsung and TSMC (though TSMC is said to be a reluctant recruit to the trilogy) are trying to push the idea of 450mm wafers.
SEMI, the trade body representing the production equipment makers, and Applied Materials, the largest production equipment maker, are saying: No way Jose.
SEMI's new report on the issue is pretty unequivocal: ''450-mm wafer scale-up represents a low-return, high-risk investment opportunity for the entire semiconductor ecosystem; 450-mm should, therefore, be an extremely low priority area for industry investment,'' says the SEMI report.
"If we're going to go to 32nm and 22nm and beyond, and do 450mm as well, the costs are just huge," says Dr Mark Pinto, CTO of Applied Materials. Pinto says that only Intel, Samsung and TSMC want 450mm. Applied says it is doing no work on 450mm wafer development.
'There are simply not enough R&D resources available to continue advancement in nodes and processes AND to work on a 450 mm wafer size transition,' says the SEMI report.
So why do Samsung and Intel continue to press for 450mm? Well basically because they are two of a very small group who will benefit from it.
While Samsung and Intel can afford $5 billion 450mm fabs, most of the rest of the industry can't.
So, in a world of $5bn fabs, Samsung and Intel, and maybe a couple of foundries, would have a lock on advanced CMOS semiconductor processing.
In that case, the semiconductor industry would be cutting its own throat by ante-ing up for a 450mm development programme.
Of course, if Intel and Samsung were to put up a decent slice of the $25 billion which, according to the SEMI report, the development of 450mm would cost, then maybe something would happen.
But, until then: No way. The production guys have been inveigled before into spending huge sums on development projects, e.g. 157nm lithography, only to see the device guys give up on them. They've only recently started to see a return from the cost of developing 300mm.
The message for the device guys is simple:
Put up or shut up.
TOMORROW: THE TEN MOST STUPID REMARKS OF THE YEAR
Leave a comment