IMF Forecasts 0.5% Growth In 09, But Who Believes It?

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Will we ever trust economists again? The Queen put her finger on it exactly when, during a visit to the LSE, she asked the economists: "Why didn't you see it coming?"

 

So do we believe yesterday's forecast by the IMF that the world economy will grow by 0.5% in 2009 and 3% in 2010? 

 

Probably not, especially when the IMF goes on to say: 'The uncertainty surrounding the outlook is unusually large.' Economist-speak for: 'We haven't a clue'.

 

For what it's worth the IMF reckons the leading shrinkers in 09 are: US 1.6%; UK 2.8%, Germany 2.5%, Japan 2.6%; and Continental Europe 1.6 per cent, and the leading growers are China 6.7% and India 5.1%

 

The UK is hardest hit because it has so many of the world's biggest banks which have run up gigantic losses, and because it has had such a massive housing boom.

 

Overall worldwide banks have lost over $2 trillion, says the IMF.

 

And how many bankers' have got the sack?

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2 Comments

Economists are of experts in hindsight but useless in foresight.

Our system of capitalism is built on the presumption of honesty, respect for the rule of law, and the assumption that institutions of stature and credibility (such as banks,rating agencies,etc) will tell the truth.

Unfortunately as the entire world now realises it was a shell game. All quite disappointing really to see we were all taken with such a sham for the last century. Time to brush up on Karl Marx.

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