What is very odd is that DigiTimes of Taiwan is reporting that 'orders from the netbook and 3G handset segments will help drive foundry growth for the third quarter of 2009', while Intel reported that revenues for its netbook processor, Atom, were down by 27 percent in Q109 compared to the previous quarter.
Moreover Intel reports that processor prices were flat, so why the massive fall-off in demand for Atom? Could it be that the netbook OEMs are looking elsewhere for their CPUs?
When I bought my first netbook in January - a nice little thing from Maplin's to be my grandaughter's first computer - it had a MIPS processor.
Qualcomm, Nvidia and Freescale are touting ARM-based processors for netbooks. Maybe other architectures are out there.
According to The Information Network, Intel is expected to have 80 per cent netbook processor market share this year but, in 2012, ARM is expected to have a 55 percent netbook market share, propelled by ARM's always-on 3G capability, and its 10X power efficiency advantage over Atom.
If that happens, it will be another example of how revolutions eat their children. IBM popularised the PC but lost control of the market by enabling Intel's control of the PC processor; Intel may be about to lose control of the PC processor market by enabling the netbook sector.
I would hardly say Intel enabled the netbook sector. There were machines with similar form factor and capabilities before the Eee PC. What made the Eee PC popular was a low price compared to recent alternatives (such as Palm's Foleo).
Foleo used ARM, as did Psion's own netBook from over a decade ago. Foleo failed because of price, netBook failed partly on price and partly by being too early -- public Internet access was not ubiquitous enough in 1999.
Torben, you are absolutely right. Do you remember the 1980s Poqet for instance? Poqet was absolutely the same form factor as today's netbooks.
But the big laptop makers didn't make Poqet-type stuff - they made clunky old 6lb Dell-type luggables. I assume they made these because they wanted to brainwash people into believing that computers require more and more features and functions and by adding these to laptops, they can keep selling them for between $1,000 and $2,000 and people will keep buying new ones at that price to get the new functions/features.
What Intel enabled, in my view, was a change of mind-set among the laptop manufacturers that it was a good idea to make small, cheap, Asus eee-type stuff.
This, in my view, was an own-goal by Intel because it's in Intel's interests to keep laptop prices high which in turn would keep processor prices high.
But once the eee showed there wqas a massive market for tiny lap-tops the floodgates were opened - suddenly portability and battery life were important, and that opened the door to other processor architectures and Bingo! the lap-top market was opened to other architectures beside x86 and to radically new price points.
I tend to agree with you David, the Netbook market has opened up an opportunity for ARM to enter Intels market and does nothing for Intel to make inroads against ARM in any of its core markets. So ARM is set for a net market share gain.
However the accelerators for this market opportunity are 2 fold.
1. Cloud Computing style applications that capture the attention of the average consumer in the way Microsoft office has to date. I see glimmers, but not much real activity here yet. Such apps will be ideally suited to low cost lower performance (but better battery life) internet enabled Netbooks.
2. New business Models for the cloud computing apps. Open Source is undoubtedly a building block for the transition to these new business models, but it needs a new business model for the end consumer. However Googles pay per click mechanism does not easily apply, nor does a click through advertising model. We are already seeing carriers doing some interesting things to sell bandwidth leveraging such apps, but so far they have tinkered around at the edges of the business models.
Once both these issues are addressed....and its probable that the successful app will be the one with the right business model, so they will come together at the same time, then we will see a serious change in the market in terms of netbook adoption and potentially ARMs penetration of Intels core consumer market segment.
Until then netbook growth is mostly associated with cut price PC replacement sales. A not insignificant business...and it may increase the number of PC users for Intel, but at a major price reduction for them....can they even adjust to such a radical change in income stream profile if the netbook takes off?
Well, Geoff, the fact that Atom doesn't seem to fit into Intel's cost model suggests that the answer to your question is: No.
All that talk about Intel, Arm, Atom, low power... and not a single line about Moorestown in whole blog?
Atom is now untouchable by ARM.
Cortex vs Moorestown battle begin soon, I wish Arm good luck.
Good point Nemad but do we know the full spec of Moorestown?