The rate of increase in American unemployment reduced in May, after increasing for the previous 16 months, and that's a signal that the economic recovery is under way, according to the OECD, while the ONS and NIESR see the UK economy beginning to grow again.
The UK Office for National Statistics says manufacturing output in the
After falling for 20 months in a row, the leading indicators monitored by the OECD went up in March, and went up again in April.
The OECD's indicators now point to 'recovery' instead of the 'strong slowdown' indicated since August 2008 and 'point to a reduced pace of deterioration in most of the OECD economies with stronger signals of a possible trough in
The director of the NIESR, Martin Wheale, says he the recession was "over or close to over" in the second quarter of 2009, adding that March represented the bottom.
The fact that the main economies are moving in lock-step indicates, say economists, that just as the downturn was exacerbated because it affected everyone at the same time, so the upturn could be sharper and stronger because it will be synchronised.
It is amazing how synchronized this recession has been with indices as diverse as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the SEMI Book-to-Bill, the Dow, the FTSE and the Nasdaq all showing rises from a bottom in mid-March.
In the financial world, Northern Rock, which has repaid two thirds of its bail-out money, will be sold back to the public at a profit before the end of the year, says the experts, ten US banks will pay-back $68 billion of the $200 billion TARP bail-out they received, and even LloydsTSB-HBOS has managed to repay $2.5 billion to the government.
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