Mannerisms

David, the problem is both you (and possibly Marvell too) are looking at the wrong places. This video will give you a very big hint of who is the real early customer for those ODM designs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9aE3ubx7h8 - there's a higher-res version of that somewhere on the net where you can see the name of all the carriers, but I couldn't find it.

At the end of the day, there will be three OSes for ARM netbooks: Chrome OS, WinCE, and Ubuntu. Anyone claiming anything else has a chance to penetrate more than a few percent of that market is delusional, IMO. And of course, that's the other problem: on that list, the first (and most interesting) option is far from ready and ARM Ubuntu arguably isn't completely there yet either.

While I am definitely convinced that operators are a good 'go to market' strategy for ARM netbooks for a multitude of reasons (good distribution channel where you've got a more direct contact with your customer for example and interest in solutions that are limited, as long as they are limited in the 'right way'), I am very worried that they might screw up the subscription model.

It's fine to expect the customer to be locked to a 3G contract in exchange for for an even cheaper product ($49?) - but it's not fine for that contract to be a 2 year one when it's essentially a disposable product IMO, and this also moves this even further away from impulsive buy territory.

Frankly, I think companies like NVIDIA/Freescale/Qualcomm should just have sold some self-branded netbooks themselves (low volume is OK, 10-25K?) as ways to excite the market and get OEMs looking at it more seriously. Now the plan is for carrier sales to do that, but the problem is those keep getting delayed. The Tegra-based Mobinnova Elan was supposed to be sold by early carriers this year, but now they claim it'll happen at CES 2010. This better be the last delay...

There's still a chance some other Tegra or Snapdragon-based netbook will start selling in some obscure region of the world this year, but I'm skeptical. The OEMs have clearly dropped the ball on this one, and the carriers are on good track to follow suit. I guess evil scheming could play some part in the OEM reaction, but when it comes to carriers the delays are more a question of them being inherently slow to do things, in addition to often being incompetent.

Let's hope 2010 will be a better year. Maybe carriers will deliver. Maybe NVIDIA will even manage to get Tegra2 netbooks (2xCortex-A9) out in 2H10 as they were and still are hoping. Maybe others might also deliver on their goals and maybe OEMs will finally get it. Or maybe not.

would it not be possible to create a web-site where folks can pre-order an ARM notebook - such that when a certain level of orders is reached they can be built?

alternatively - create a kit - and flog it at sparkfun or someplace like that - get some early adopters.

it may very well have appeal to many embedded system designers.

pick an existing cheap netbook and build an "intel evacuation kit" - which is a system board that can replace whatever is currently inside it?

lot's of alternatives.

"..Intel's MDF? Could be a factor" ...I'd say, make that Wintel. Betcha didn't see too many non-Wintel netbooks yet. You'll need more than a Marvell for a non Wintel netbook.

Nice pun, Cheese

Thanks Arun, I forgot the telcos. I hope you're right about them. I see the Youtube video is a Computex video and, in June, the noises from OEMs about ARM-based netbooks were positive. Nowadays they seem quieter. You're absolutely right that Nvidia, Freescale Qualcomm should have seeded the market with own-brand netbooks to show dithering OEMs that there was a market opportunity. Someone may still take the plunge and OEM an ARM-based netbook, but the longer this thing is delayed the more people will just buy an Atom netbook, and the whole netbook sector will be locked back into Wintel. And then watch netbook prices rise!

Well Jonny wish bone, your first business model is the Clive Sinclair/Acorn model, the second the Apple model so they've both been successful. It seems there's a screaming market oppportunity for someone here but the mainstream OEMs have been frightened off. We need a new Sinclair, Hauser, Sugar or Jobs to get this thing on the road.
PS The Intel evacuation kit is a nice idea.

I don't think any of the OEMs had engaged to the degree that the Telcos had back in June - NVIDIA was maniacally focused on winning the Telcos even some time before then, already thinking that OEMs probably wouldn't happen in any real way this holiday season. Freescale and Qualcomm probably were more optimistic about OEMs still though. Of course, now it looks like despite that even Telco ARM netbooks won't be out this year. In fact, it seems no ARM netbook will be out before Intel's Pineview - which isn't a very good product, mind you, but power-wise it's at least less awful than the original Atom.

IMO, ARM's biggest advantage remains cost, not power. There's no way Intel could do a $99 7" netbook, but that's easy for NVIDIA or Freescale. However, when you go via the Telcos and sell with a 3G plan, the cost difference shrinks dramatically. Heck, just the addition of a 3G module even without a subscription plan makes things quite a bit worse, but the problem is 3G USB modems wouldn't have the right drivers for the OSes used in ARM Netbooks.

The very best thing that could have happened was if NVIDIA sold self-branded Tegra netbooks for the *2008* Holidays at a premium, with the premium going for a charity. They could probably have done it (they were certainly hoping for OEMs to sell them for the holidays back at Computex 08!) and if it was good enough, it would have kickstarted the market very nicely - plus increased Tegra momentum in general (available 10 months earlier than the Zune HD...)

Unfortunately, hindsight is 20/20. When I talked with Rayfield shortly after Computex 08, nothing remotely similar crossed my mind at all - oh well.

Oh, and Qualcomm & NVIDIA results are on the 4th and 5th of November respectively. If we don't hear anything about ARM Netbooks at their CCs, we know there's a problem (to say the least)... Here's hoping.

Thanks Arun. I'll keep my fingers crossed.

David,

If Fry's doesn't have it, it's still an ODM prototype netbook, and I've seen many of those, from Nvidia, Freescale and others. I haven't seen a "branded" ARM-based netbook or smartbook (the term I prefer for Linux-based units)on the street, yet.

Qualcomm told me a year ago this summer that SnapDragon netbook/smartbook engagements were alive and well with some two dozen designs and launches would begin in Q1/09. Other than the Toshiba TG01 (which some would call a big smartphone), I haven't seen any sign of those 24 designs...yet.

Will

Thanks Will. It would seem that a stack of ARM-based netbook/smartbook prototypes are stacked up at the Quantels and Foxconns of this world waiting for the OEMs and waiting and waiting . . . one tends to suspect the dark arts of Intel marketing because the chip-set manufacturers seemed to say H209 for product launches, and they don't say that now. I see TI isn't going after the netbook/smartbook market any more. The telcos might save the day for ARM-based stuff.

What about ARM themselves?
Surely it is in their long-term interest to kick-start what may be a huge future market space for them, and stick it to Wintel in the process?
A partnership / consortium with a few OEMs and suppliers to get the issues resolved quickly and their away - or am I missing something fundemental?

Exactly Rory S. That's pretty much what Arun Demeure said yesterday. His comment was: "Frankly, I think companies like NVIDIA/Freescale/Qualcomm should just have sold some self-branded netbooks themselves (low volume is OK, 10-25K?) as ways to excite the market and get OEMs looking at it more seriously." Of course the chip people would say they'd be competiting with their customers if they did that, but chip companies have found loads of ways in the past of kick-starting OEM products.