Allocation, lengthening lead-time and rising prices - the harbingers of a significantly more profitable, higher value and faster growing IC industry - are all happening, according to mid-November Arrow projections for semiconductor supply.
Micron SDRAM is on allocation until the end of Q1 2010, while Samsung DDR1 is on allocation with DDR II in 'tight supply'. All SDRAM is on an upwards pricing and lead-time trend.
Fast SRAM prices are rising, slow SRAM lead-times are increasing.
Numonyx NAND is on allocation. SanDisk NAND cards have constrained supply. NOR prices are rising.
Discretes are mostly on 10-12 week lead times with pricing trends either stable or going up.
TI where has an 'average' lead time of 20 weeks for OPA, interfaces, and power management devices, with some data converters and power management devices at 30 weeks.
ST has some 20 week lead-times in OPA, and power management products.
Prices across the board in advanced analogue are stable to upwards.
LTC remains the star supplier in advanced analogue with 4 week lead-times thanks to its die bank.
ST and TI have some standard linear parts on 20 week lead-times and TI, ST and NXP have some standard logic parts on 20 week lead-times.
Altera has some FPGAs on 21 week lead-times and some CPLDs on 15 week lead-times.
TI has some DSPs on 26 week lead-times. Freescale's 8-bit, 16-bit and 32-bit processors are on lead-times up to 20 weeks.
With manufacturing capacity already tight, there does not seem to be any early change in this unfolding scenario of increasing shortages and price rises.
The power in the age-old see-saw between the IC supplier and the IC user, is now swinging to the supplier. And not before time.
It's about time the IC industry started making some big profits and showing some major growth in financial terms.
For too long, the IC industry has been supplying more and more for less and less. This has led to analysts characterising it as an ex-growth, or slow-growth, industry and down-grading its shares, while managements have been encouraged by shareholders to curtail R&D and expansion.
If the IC industry is to generate the cash to invest in R&D to develop significant new products which will advance the entire electronics industry, then a period of shortages and high prices will be an excellent thing all round.
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Comments (5)
These shortages really have been causing a lot of headaches for my customers so we stocked up big time on TI and ST product at the first sign of things going south. I'm not trying to advertize, moreso just looking to keep a few people from pulling their hair out. If your in that position feel free to drop me a call at (631)951-3500. My name is Jay and I work for Allstar Electronics.
Posted by Jay Lenox | December 7, 2009 9:06 PM
Posted on December 7, 2009 21:06
Good thinking Jay, keep me posted on how things go.
Posted by David Manners
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December 8, 2009 10:25 AM
Posted on December 8, 2009 10:25
Power inductors and chip-L's are moving out to anything from 12 weeks to 25 weeks and prices are rising. I have no data on chip R's and C's but if these staples of the electronics world are moving out and up then it's a good indication of a grass roots swing to a sellers market. Certainly in the previous buyers market no one had been adding capacity due to shrinking profits and I can't see any trend to add capacity any time soon....next year should be interesting. Let's just hope increased prices and longer lead times don't suffocate any recovery....but then again it's about time component suppliers started to make some profit!
Posted by Darren Simmons | December 8, 2009 8:08 PM
Posted on December 8, 2009 20:08
We see the same trend across our product portfolio, from commodity memory to core processors. Customers are reacting positively and extending their order requirements to suit leadtimes, especially on proprietary products.
It will be interesting to see how the distribution channel reacts to the "shortage".
Many have reduced inventory down to unserviceable levels, customers will nee them now.
Posted by Nigel Watts | December 15, 2009 12:47 PM
Posted on December 15, 2009 12:47
Thanks Nigel, there's an interesting time ahead, I think. There were some hints around that TSMC is raising prices. That will stir things up.
Posted by David Manners
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December 15, 2009 2:59 PM
Posted on December 15, 2009 14:59