Those who say the semiconductor industry is maturing should take note of the fact that not only are markets as volatile as they ever were, but the future of the technology is as undetermined as it ever was. No one knows if the industry will be using 193nm immersion scanners or EUV for the generation after next.
Gordon Moore always said he could never see more than a couple of generations into the future, and it was Moore who, back in 1997, got a consortium together to try and develop EUV technology. At that time EUV required the machining of mirrors to tolerances regarded as impossible.
"We have to make optics on a production scale that can barely be achieved now if at all,"
Now, 13 years later, ASML is building the first six EUV tools, which it calls 'pre-production' systems.
All six are earmarked for specific customers to be delivered during 2010 and 2011.
The only customer known to be on ASML's list is TSMC which is expecting its machine to be delivered this year.
It is certain that Samsung, Intel, IBM are also on the list. The other two could be Globalfoundries and UMC.
Or it could be Toshiba and Renesas/Matsushita, if the Japanese domestic EUV programme, led by Canon, is running behind ASML/IMEC.
Intel had, at one time, an intention to introduce EUV at 22nm, which was expected to be a 2011 timeframe process, but EUV tools will not be ready for that node. Intel says it can keep using 193nm immersion technology for volume production down to 11nm, and will probably first use EUV for pilot production at 15nm.
Samsung says it wants to use EUV for early-stage production in 2012. Presumably for 22nm.
However, that is too early for ASML's production tool roadmap.
The reason why scanners are not production-ready today is probably related to their throughput.
The throughput of wafers on the six pre-production tools currently being built by ASML is 60 an hour. Immmersion scanners process 140 wafers an hour.
"Our customers have told us they want faster systems", ASML told me, "our Phase 3 programme in 2013 will be for volume tools running at very high speed."
"At 140 wafers an hour?" I asked.
"We can't say" said ASML.
And the cost of a pre-production EUV tool? Well, as might be expected, it's North of the cost of an immersion scanner which is €40 million.
ASML won't say how much more, but some say as much as €65 million.
Not only is the future uncertain, but its cost is uncertain too.
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