January is usually a poor month for semiconductor sales, usually recording a drop on December, usually heralding a Q1 which is down on the previous year's Q4.
It's all to do with seasonal factors, particularly Christmas. So analysts expect a month-on-month drop for December-January, and a quarter-on-quarter drop for Q4-Q1.
But not this year.
The US SIA said sales in January 2010 were up 0.3% on December 2009. And the European SIA said January 2010 sales, measured in Euros, were up 0.9% on December 2009.
Now that is exceptionally good news. If Q1 follows January's lead, then it'll be a growth quarter.
And if Q1 is a growth quarter, then the 20%+ industry growth expected this year could look conservative.
At IEF2010, when Future Horizons made their 22% forecast for 2010, their quarterly assumptions were:
Q1 would show a 1% decline, Q2 would be flat, Q3 would show 6% growth, and Q4 would have 2% growth.
Now that we're seeing the possibility of Q1 being a growth quarter, it is possible to envisage a scenario like:
Q1 at +2%; Q2 at +4%; Q3 at +12%; and Q4 at +3%.
That scenario would deliver 31% growth for the year.
"30% is quite possible this year", says Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons, "now that we know that Q1 is not going to be negative."
And for 2011?
"Next year, we can go through 30% without even trying", says
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