Everyone knows Q1 is a shitty quarter. Q3 is usually the best quarter, Q4 is the second best quarter, Q2 bumbles along flattish - but Q1 is usually the worst. Well, maybe not Q1 2010.
The SIA says January was up on December - that's unusual. The European SIA said the same thing.
Not by much in either case - by 0.3% in the case of the SIA's figures for worldwide, and by 0.9% in the ESIA's figures for
A fraction of a percent seems crummy, but it's significant - because Q1 is nearly always down on Q4. Everyone expects that.
But here, now, in 2010, Q1 is looking to be a growth quarter.
According to IC Insights, Q1 2010 could be a 3% growth quarter.
Based on that happening, the prognosis by forecasters is for a 30%+ growth year in 2010.
Do we see any CEOs talking 30% growth?
I don't think so.
Some think: 'I cut back too much in Q408 and Q109. We can't grow by 30% because we no longer have the capacity. So I'll forecast low because I can't say I'm planning on losing market share.'
Some think: 'I've never come unstuck by being downbeat. I'm comfortable with pessimism'.
Others think: 'I can't bring myself to believe it'.
Leave a comment