Was there ever a time when the semiconductor industry could have brought supply and demand into balance?
We all know it hasn't happened these last 60 years, and some of the worst imbalances have been in the last decade, but there was once a chance to solve this most intractable of problems.
Back in 1996 the semiconductor industry was preparing for the first meeting of the World Semiconductor Council.
Knorr was keen that
Asked if he saw the WSC as a form of OPEC Knorr replied: "That's the idea".
"The WSC could ask 'Is it worthwhile to build 20 fabs now or should it be cut back to ten?'" added Knorr. "We have to be careful because the
Why? "Because" replied Knorr "it's a very risky industry and there's a lot of money involved."
Hmm...is there really a significant imbalance between supply and demand in the chip industry? Honestly, I do not see it. Yes, there will be periodic imbalances followed by corrections. People who recognize the imbalance and trigger corrections are usually the winners..and the rest are whiners. People who address real needs of the market win and people with wild tech fantasies that the market doesn't recognize, will complain, and eventually collapse into M&As. If anything, the market is self-correcting - and the world is flat. The sooner people recognize these twin truths, the sooner they will organize for profits.