Why is the SIA talking the industry down? "The SIA's job is to collect information, analyse it and draw conclusions, but their analysis is on the level of the kindergarten," said Malcolm Penn, CEO of UK analysts Future Horizons at the company's International Electronics Forum 2010 in
"I was bemused by the SIA comments on the March market figures when they said they were reasonably confident the industry would grow in double digits this year", said Penn, adding, "it's downright impossible to get it into single digits. It would take a minus 15% Q3, and a minus 20% Q4 to get it into single figures."
Penn reckons the industry will grow 31% per cent this year, adding that there was sufficient inherent upside for it to hit 34/5%.
He's not the only one to think so. US market analysts iSuppli are also predicting 30% growth for the semiconductor industry this year.
"We've had four straight quarters of positive growth", said Penn, but people are still asking: 'Is it real? Could it all go wrong tomorrow? There's a loss of confidence." He accused the SIA of "talking the industry down."
"The memory market could easily top $75 billion - that's $25 billion profit", said
The happy market conditions are here to stay.
"There will", said Penn, "be at least two years - going into a third year - of a really good market."
Yes how can the SIA be so conservative with their views when we have so much positive economic news happening around the world? Gone and talked to anyone in Greece lately? Looked at the highest unemployment rate in the U.S. in years? Followed the list bank closings, chapter 11 filings, and small business failures and unpredented levels of government bailouts around the world? While 2010 looks very strong for semis, at the moment, a wise and oft quoted American once said, "it ain't over til it's over!"