Black Swans on IP Lake
The debate on the future to the IP market rages on with dozens of Letters to the Editor protesting Mark Lapedus’ controversial opinion piece (Semi IP is a lost Cause) last month.
I’ve just returned from Japan and had the fortune to pick up a great, thought provoking book called “Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. A Black Swan is defined as a rare event with three very special characteristics: 1) It is not predicted, 2) it has massive consequences usually on a global scale, and 3) in retrospect people invariable claim that they could have predicted it if they had been paying attention. Examples of Black Swans are 9/11, the Netscape IPO, and the stock crash of October 1987.
