Dodgy Old Q4

The noises coming out of reporting CEOs recently have not been optimistic. Some have taken this to mean that the 30% + surge in the semi market this year is to be followed by hard times. But it would be premature to draw such a conclusion.

TI said demand softened in Q3 and will continue to soften in Q4, principally from TV and computer customers, with TI expecting Q4 revenue to fall to between to $3.36 billion to $3.64 billion from $3.74 billion in Q3. TI cites ‘seasonal patterns, continued soft demand in computing and consumer markets, and slowing growth in the industrial market’.

Hynix had a Q3 9% decline in DRAM ASP and a 23% decline in NAND ASP and expects a further ASP decline in Q4 of 20-25%.

UMC says its wafer output could fall by around 5% in Q4 compared to Q3 with fab utilisation falling to 90% in Q4 from 99% in Q3.

TSMC says Q4 revenues are expected to be between US$3.49 billion and US$3.56 billion after achieving US$3.6 billion in Q3.

Cypress expects a drop in revenues in Q4 attributed to a softening PC market.

Lattice expects a drop in revenue in Q4 of between 2 and 7%.

An exception to the trend is ST which expects Q4 growth of between 2% and 7% after Q3 growth of 5%.

The thing is Q4 is nearly always worse than Q3.

These CEOs may simply be managing expectations.



  1. You couldn’t be boring if you tried, Malcolm.

  2. Hole in one David … or in more layman’s terms “stating the bleeding obvious”. Full marks to ST for a true sense of market realism. As for the others: it’s either a reflection of their own market failings or sterile political capitulation to the Wall Street bullies. Me … I’d rather sell my soul to the Devil, which I never will even though I’ll probably end up enjoying my after life in his company! There’s nothing wrong with the chip market outlook … what’s needed is more business determination and aggression … OMG I’m sounding so boring and old fashioned 🙂

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